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In philosophy of science, strong inference is a model of scientific inquiry that emphasizes the need for alternative hypotheses, rather than a single hypothesis in order to avoid confirmation bias.
The term "strong inference" was coined by John R. Platt,[1] a biophysicist at the University of Chicago. Platt notes that certain fields, such as molecular biology and high-energy physics, seem to adhere strongly to strong inference, with very beneficial results for the rate of progress in those fields.
The single hypothesis problem[]
The problem with single hypotheses, confirmation bias, was aptly described by Thomas Chrowder Chamberlin in 1897[citation needed]:
“ | The moment one has offered an original explanation for a phenomenon which seems satisfactory, that moment affection for [one’s] intellectual child springs into existence, and as the explanation grows into a definite theory [one’s] parental affections cluster about [the] offspring and it grows more and more dear .... There springs up also unwittingly a pressing of the theory to make it fit the facts and a pressing of the facts to make them fit the theory...
The temptation to misinterpret results that contradict the desired hypothesis is probably irresistible. (Jewett, 2005) [2] |
” |
Despite the admonitions of Platt, reviewers of grant-applications often require "A Hypothesis" as part of the proposal (note the singular). Peer-review of research can help avoid the mistakes of single-hypotheses, but only so long as the reviewers are not in the thrall of the same hypothesis. If there is a shared enthrallment among the reviewers in a commonly believed hypothesis, then innovation becomes difficult because alternative hypotheses are not seriously considered, and sometimes not even permitted.
Strong Inference[]
The method, very similar to the scientific method, is described as:
- Devising alternative hypotheses;
- Devising a crucial experiment (or several of them), with alternative possible outcomes, each of which will, as nearly as possible, exclude one or more of the hypotheses;
- Carrying out the experiment so as to get a clean result;
- Recycling the procedure, making subhypotheses or sequential hypotheses to refine the possibilities that remain, and so on.
Limitations[]
A number of limitations of strong inference have been identified.[3][4]
Strong inference plus[]
The limitations of Strong-Inference can be corrected by having two preceding phases[2]:
- An exploratory phase: at this point information is inadequate so observations are chosen randomly or intuitively or based on scientific creativity.
- A pilot phase: in this phase statistical power is determined by replicating experiments under identical experimental conditions.
These phases create the critical seed observation(s) upon which one can base alternative hypotheses.[2]
References[]
- ↑ John R. Platt (1964). Strong inference. Science 146 (3642).
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Don L. Jewett (1 January 2005). What’s wrong with single hypotheses? Why it is time for Strong-Inference-PLUS. Scientist (Philadelphia, Pa.) 19 (21): 10.
- ↑ William O'Donohue and Jeffrey A Buchanan (2001). The weaknesses of strong inference. Behavior and Philosophy.
- ↑ Rowland H. Davis (2006). Strong Inference: rationale or inspiration?. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 49: 238–250.
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